(Mainichi Japan) October 1, 2008 Financial collapse: Chain of crises that started in the U.S. (Part 1) 金融崩壊：米発・危機の連鎖／上 「悪夢」世界を巡る
◇ワシントンの連中は市場を壊す気か ◇一時取引停止市場も 米大統領声明、新提案なく
"I'm disappointed by the outcome, but I assure our citizens and citizens around the world that this is not the end of the legislative process," President George W. Bush stated on Tuesday. The vote the day before by the United States Congress to deny the financial rescue plan to put an end to the financial crisis has resulted in a record New York stock market plunge. The president made the statement requesting Congress to work on the legislation without delay. 「（法案否決に）失望したが、これで法制化の道が断たれたわけではない。世界中の市民のために法案成立への作業を止めてはならない」。金融危機の収束を図る金融安定化法案を米下院が否決し、ニューヨーク株式市場が史上最大の下げ幅を記録した悪夢の月曜日から一夜明けた３０日午前８時４５分（日本時間同日午後９時４５分）。ブッシュ米大統領はホワイトハウスで声明を読み上げ、議会側に一刻も早い法案可決を求めた。
He stressed that "the consequences will worsen each day if we do not act. If our nation continues on this course, the economic damage will be painful and lasting." He also pleaded to Congress in a strong voice, "and for the financial security of every American, Congress must act." ブッシュ大統領は「議会が何もしないでいる間に、状況は日々悪化している。この法案が成立しなければ、それに伴う損失は長期の痛みを伴うものとなる」と危機感を強調。「すべての米国民のために議会は即刻行動しなければならない」と強い調子で下院の議員らに訴えかけた。
However, the less-than-four-minute statement had no new approach, and the market reaction was quite chilly. "At least the atmosphere of crisis got through," said an American economist. Congress has no prospects to reassume talks. Both presidential nominees Democrat Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain urged Congress to reassume discussion on the bill, but lacked dynamics. The general view is uncertainty about the future has not been dissolved, and the chain of financial crises seems to be inexhaustible. しかし、わずか４分足らずの演説に新たな提案はなく、市場の受け止め方は「危機感だけは伝わってきた」（米エコノミスト）と冷ややかで、議会が協議を再開するめども立っていない。大統領候補のオバマ上院議員（民主党）とマケイン上院議員（共和党）も３０日、相次いで法案審議再開を促したが、議会を動かす決定力はない。「先行きの不透明感は解消されていない」との見方は強く、金融危機の連鎖は底なし沼の様相だ。
The New York stock market was hit with a shock wave on Monday afternoon. News that Congress voted down the legislation made the rounds, and it took less than 10 minutes to plunge the average 30 Dow industrial stocks down some 400 dollars. "Is Washington trying to destroy the market?" the market shrieked. The public thought why should it save well-paid people's financial institutions with their tax money? The taxpayer's discontent was reflected through the rejection by Congress. ニューヨーク株式市場に衝撃が走ったのは前日の２９日午後（日本時間３０日未明）だった。「下院が法案を否決した」とのニュースが伝わり、ダウ工業株３０種平均は１０分足らずで約４００ドルも下落。「ワシントンの（政治家）連中は市場を壊す気か」。市場から悲鳴にも似たどよめきが起こった。「高給取りの金融機関を巨額の税金で救うのか」。国民の間に広がっていた不満がそのまま下院の法案否決という形で表れた。
With the Nov. 4 presidential and congressional elections drawing near, world economics were not a part of most lawmakers' vocabulary. Congressman Dean Heller of Nevada huffed, "I cannot with good conscience put Nevada's taxpayers on the line for the foolish excesses of Wall Street." 米大統領選と議会選が１１月４日に迫り、大半の議員は世界経済のことなど眼中にない。ヘラー下院議員（共和党、ネバダ州選出）は「ウォール街の連中が、行き過ぎたバカげた行為で作った問題に、ネバダの納税者を巻き込むのは良心が許さない」と息巻いた。
The plunge in the New York stock market rippled around the world. Brazil's Sao Paulo market had to be temporarily closed down because of the unforeseen substantial drop. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva did not hide his anger, "It's not fair for healthy emergent nations and poor countries to pay for the casino built by the American economy." The Tokyo market also suffered a knock down on Tuesday. All Asian markets plunged too, except for the Shanghai market that was closed that day. The Russian market also went into a free fall, and had to be suspended. ニューヨーク株式市場の急落は世界に波及、ブラジルのサンパウロ市場も想定を超えた大幅安となり、一時取引停止に。ルラ大統領は「健全な新興国や貧困国はカジノのような米国の経済政策の代償を負うべきではない」と憤りをあらわにした。３０日の東京市場も全面安となり、株価ボードは下落を示す緑色に染まった。同日は休場だった上海市場を除き、アジア株も軒並み下落。ロシア株式市場も値下がりに歯止めがかからず、取引一時停止に追い込まれた。
In Europe, the London market bounced back, but British Prime Minister Gordon Brown maintained his vigilance and pledged that he would take all necessary steps to guarantee the stability of the British banking system. Although the Frankfurt market also made a kickback, the inferno of the European financial market is far from cooled down. 欧州もロンドン市場は反発したが、ブラウン英首相は警戒を緩めず「英国の安定維持のため、中央銀行総裁や財務相と必要なすべての行動を取る」と表明。フランクフルト市場なども値を戻したものの、金融市場の動揺は収まったとはいえない。
Ireland announced on Tuesday a sweeping guarantee of all deposits in the country's banks in a bid to stabilize the Irish financial sector. アイルランド政府は３０日朝、国内の金融システム安定化を図るため今後２年間、国内銀行の預金を全額保護する異例の措置を発表した。
(Oct. 2, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun Debate leaves more questions than answers 国会代表質問 すれ違いに終わった党首対決（10月2日付・読売社説）
Democratic Party of Japan President Ichiro Ozawa's speech during the Diet questioning session Wednesday was rather unusual. Was this an attempt to counter the equally unconventional policy speech given by Prime Minister Taro Aso to the Diet on Monday? 異例の所信表明演説には、異例の代表質問で応じるということか。
Political maneuvering between the Liberal Democratic Party and the DPJ ahead of the next House of Representatives election is well and truly under way. 次期衆院選に向けて、自民、民主両党の駆け引きが本格化している。
Ozawa's speech, which he regarded as a policy speech he would make if he were prime minister, stressed mostly how a DPJ-led government would change Japan. Ozawa clearly spelled out policy pledges for the next lower house election, such as the provision of child-rearing allowances and a subsidy to guarantee a certain level of income for each farmer, and indicated the time frame for carrying out these policies. 民主党の小沢代表は、自らの代表質問を「所信表明」と位置づけ、「民主党政権」が日本をどう変えるか、をもっぱら力説した。この中で、子ども手当や農家の戸別所得補償など、衆院選の政権公約の実施時期を個別に明示した。
The DPJ took a step forward from the pledges contained in its manifesto for last year's House of Councillors election by presenting a "flow chart" for carrying out policies. The two sets of policy pledges, however, are similar in that both spelled out policies without clearly stating where financial resources to fund them would come from. 政策の「工程表」を示したのは、昨年夏の参院選公約より一歩前進だ。だが、財源の裏付けがあいまいな点はあまり変わらない。
Ozawa called for reconfiguring the net expenditures of the general and special accounts--212 trillion yen per year--and using about 10 percent of the budgets, or 20.5 trillion yen, for financing the DPJ's policies. 小沢代表は、一般・特別会計の年間純支出計２１２兆円を抜本的に組み替え、その約１割の２０・５兆円を財源にする、という。
Slashing expenditures, however, is difficult when more than 80 percent of them are earmarked for debt-servicing costs and social security benefits payments. The so-called "buried gold," or surplus funds in special accounts, which the DPJ has proposed tapping for implementing some of its policies, will not be an inexhaustible financial resource. しかし、支出の８割以上は国債償還、社会保障給付などで、削減は困難だ。特別会計の「埋蔵金」も恒久的財源にはならない。
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Dodging tough questions
When the DPJ officially announces its manifesto for assuming power, the party must give clear answers to such questions. 民主党が政権公約を正式に発表する際には、こうした疑問に明確に答える必要があろう。
This was not the first "policy speech" Ozawa has made during a Diet questioning session by party representatives. Ozawa adopted a similar tack in January 1996 when he was allowed to question the policy speech made by then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto immediately after becoming chief of the now-defunct New Frontier Party. 小沢代表の代表質問での「所信表明」は、初めてではない。新進党党首に就任した直後の１９９６年１月にも、当時の橋本首相に対し同様の手法をとっている。
Ozawa, meanwhile, did not directly answer five questions Aso had directed at the DPJ during the prime minister's policy speech. 一方で、麻生首相が所信表明演説で発した五つの質問に対しては、正面から答えなかった。
For example, Ozawa did not answer whether his party will give priority to the Japan-U.S. security alliance or the United Nations in diplomatic and security matters. He merely said, "The Japan-U.S. security alliance and the policy of placing the United Nations at the core of this nation's diplomatic policies do not contradict each other at all." 例えば、日米同盟と国連の優先順位については、「日米同盟と国連中心主義は何ら矛盾しない」との無難な発言にとどめた。
Ozawa probably judged that it would not work to his advantage to discuss in detail the topics proposed by Aso. However, these debates will fail to get to the crux of each issue if both leaders simply speak past each other by making assertions. 相手の土俵に乗るのは得策でない。そんな判断が小沢代表にあったのだろう。だが、双方が互いの主張を一方的に述べるだけでは、議論はすれ違うばかりだ。
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Still time for debates
Debates only grab the attention of listeners when each side makes its position clear, while making rebuttals to the other's arguments. 自らの立場を明確にしつつ、きちんと反論し合ってこそ、聞き応えのある論議になる。
Pointing to the fact that the administrations of Aso's two predecessors--Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda--were short-lived, Ozawa called for an early dissolution of the lower house. "It only stands to reason in a parliamentary democracy to hand over the reins of government to the opposition and hold a general election," Ozawa said. 小沢代表は、安倍、福田両政権が短命に終わったことを踏まえ、「野党に政権を渡し、総選挙を行うのが議会制民主主義の筋道」と早期の衆院解散を求めた。
Aso scoffed at Ozawa's assertion by saying, "The LDP is the party that has the unyielding capability to hold the reins of government and assume responsibility for the future of Japan." Aso upped the ante by touching on Ozawa's admission when a proposal to form a grand coalition between the LDP and DPJ collapsed last year that doubts were cast on the DPJ's ability to assume power. 麻生首相は「確固たる政権担当能力を持ち、日本の未来に責任を持てるのは自民党だ」と切り返した。昨秋に大連立構想が頓挫した際、小沢代表が、民主党の政権担当能力に疑問が示されていると認めたことにも触れ、反論した。
The face-off between the LDP and DPJ presidents ended without getting down to the essence of the issues. But the two leaders still have more opportunities for open debates. A question-and-answer session is scheduled for next week's meeting of the lower house Budget Committee to deliberate the supplementary budget. この日の党首対決は、全般的に“消化不良”に終わったが、まだ機会はある。来週は、補正予算案審議のため、一問一答方式の衆院予算委員会が開かれる予定だ。
We believe this meeting would be a good opportunity for Ozawa to put forward more questions. We hope he will hold more in-depth debates with Aso. 小沢代表が再び質問に立ってはどうか。麻生首相と、より深みのある論戦を展開してほしい。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 2, 2008) （2008年10月2日01時50分 読売新聞）
(Mainichi Japan) October 1, 2008 Fifteen killed, 10 injured in fire at Osaka video shop 個室ビデオ店火災：１５人死亡 放火で男客に逮捕状 大阪
OSAKA -- Fifteen people were killed and 10 others injured in a fire at a video shop here in the early hours of Wednesday, police said.
The fire broke out at Video DVD Cat's, on the first floor of a seven-story building in Naniwa-ku, Osaka, and burned 37 square meters of the establishment, according to investigators.
Fifteen men, believed to be customers, were found dead in individual video rooms. Ten other men and women were injured, some seriously.
The shop manager was quoted as telling police that the fire started in one of its 32 individual rooms, each equipped with a bed and a television set. At the time, there were 26 customers and three employees on the premises. Most of the customers were apparently asleep.
"Shortly after 2:30 a.m., I smelled something burning, and opened the door to find the corridor filled with smoke. It was dark, but I managed to get out of the shop after bumping into a few people," said one customer. "I was just about to go to bed. It's horrifying to imagine that I would have died if I had fallen asleep."
Local police are trying to identify the victims, and are investigating the cause of the blaze.
(Oct. 1, 2008) The Yomiuri Shimbun U.S. must take action to cure financial woes 米国発金融危機 米政府と議会は迅速に動け（10月1日付・読売社説）
Some economists are warning that the world economy is on the verge of falling into a depression. This global financial crisis, which has its origins in the United States, must be contained using any and every means available. 世界経済は恐慌の瀬戸際、という声さえ出てきた。米国発の金融危機はなんとしても抑え込む必要がある。
Above all else, the U.S. government and the U.S. Congress must wake up to their responsibilities as they oversee the economy that is the epicenter of the subprime loan problem. They also should work together to enact a 700 billion dollars financial bailout package as soon as possible. 米国政府と議会は、サブプライムローン問題の“震源地”として、責任を自覚してもらいたい。金融安定化法案の成立を急ぐべきだ。
After the bailout package failed to pass the U.S. House of Representatives, the Dow Jones industrials index on the New York Stock Exchange plunged by a record 777 points Monday, surpassing the 684-point drop on the first trading day after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. ２９日のニューヨーク株式市場の株価は、前週末比で７７７ドル安と急落した。２００１年９月の同時テロ直後をしのぐ過去最大の下げ幅だった。
This nosedive of U.S. share prices was echoed across the world. Tokyo stocks swooned Tuesday and the key Nikkei index lost nearly 500 points. Stock prices fell almost across the board on every market in Asia and Europe. 株安は世界に波及し、３０日の東京市場の株価も５００円近く値下がりした。アジア、欧州の株価も軒並み大幅に下落した。
When will this chain of falling stock prices stop? The U.S. dollar was widely sold on foreign exchange markets, strengthening the yen against the dollar. This could threaten the credibility of the dollar. 世界の連鎖株安に、いつ歯止めがかかるのか。外国為替市場ではドルが売られ、ドル安・円高が進む。ドルの信認が揺らぎかねない事態だ。
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Package rejected, stock down ◆法案否決が株急落招く◆
Turmoil in the stock markets started after the House unexpectedly rejected the bailout package. The legislation would have allowed the U.S. government to buy bad mortgages held by troubled banks and other financial institutions with taxpayers' money to prevent a complete financial meltdown. 市場の大混乱を招いたきっかけは、米国の金融安定化法案が、大方の予想に反し議会下院で否決されたことだ。 法案は、米国政府が金融機関の不良資産を公的資金で買い取り、危機を防ぐのが目的だ。
The White House and congressional leaders had reportedly agreed to an acceptable revision of an earlier version of the package after marathon weekend talks. This appeared to set the stage for Congress to pass the rescue plan without delay. However, the package was rejected after many lawmakers of U.S. President George W. Bush's Republican Party balked at the injection of taxpayer dollars as outlined under the rescue plan and voted against it. 政府と議会が法案の修正で合意し、すぐに可決・成立するはずだった。しかし、ブッシュ大統領の与党である共和党議員らが、税金の投入に反発して大量に造反し、否決してしまった。
This rejection betrayed the expectations of the market. The feeling of disappointment spread and stocks were sold in a state of panic. Congress should bear an extremely heavy responsibility for this situation. 市場の期待が裏切られた形だ。失望感が広がり、パニック的な売りを招いたのも当然だろう。議会の責任は極めて重い。
Presidential and congressional elections are scheduled for November, so lawmakers are still coordinating opinions on the package and calculating the political risk of backing the measure, which is unpopular among voters. Are they aware that the global financial system is in critical condition? The U.S. government and Congress reportedly will resume talks on the package soon, but its passage remains far from certain. １１月の大統領選と議会選を控えて、議会では、保身の思惑絡みの駆け引きが続く。世界の金融システムが危機的状況にあるという認識が不足しているのでないか。政府と議会は、法案協議を仕切り直しする見通しだが、今のところ、事態は流動的だ。
In Japan, the financial turmoil and the recession that followed the collapse of the asset-inflated "bubble" economy in the early 1990s stubbornly hung around because the government failed to inject public money into troubled banks and financial institutions soon after the nation's financial system became unstable. U.S. authorities should draw on the lessons learned from Japan's bitter experience to deal with the current situation quickly. 日本では、バブル崩壊後に金融システム不安が起きた時、公的資金の注入が遅れ、金融不安と景気後退を長期化させた。その日本を教訓とし、米当局は素早く対応しなければならない。
Both U.S. Republican presidential candidate John McCain and his Democratic counterpart Barack Obama should urge Congress to support the rescue plan. 大統領候補の共和党のジョン・マケイン、民主党のバラク・オバマ両上院議員も、議会に協力を促すべきだ。
While the White House and congressional leaders were trying to cobble together a fragile compromise on the package, the financial upheaval was only getting worse. 金融安定化法案をめぐる政府と議会のギリギリの調整が続いている間にも、金融危機は深刻化しつつあった。
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Crisis spreads to Europe ◆欧州にも危機が飛び火◆
The U.S. government announced Monday that Citigroup Inc. would acquire the banking operations of Wachovia Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. bank, which faces bankruptcy and has become the latest victim of the deepening financial crisis. 経営難に陥った米大手銀行ワコビアは２９日、大手銀行シティグループに救済合併されることになった。
Meanwhile, the crisis has spread to Europe. Financial authorities have decided to nationalize some operations of midsized banks in Britain, the Netherlands, Iceland and other countries. 欧州にも危機が飛び火し、イギリスやオランダ、アイスランドなどで、中堅銀行の一部国有化などが決まった。
More and more financial institutions are facing credit difficulties as short-term markets in the United States and Europe see an increasing demand for funds. 欧米などの短期金融市場では、資金需給が逼迫(ひっぱく)し、資金調達に苦しむ金融機関が増えている。
Predictions that a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s could be looming if the chain-reaction crisis cannot be stopped are looking increasingly prescient. 危機の連鎖が止まらないと、大恐慌以来の事態を招きかねないとの指摘が現実味を帯びてくる。
Many economists predict the financial turmoil will weaken the U.S. real economy and further whip up uncertainty in the financial market. 金融不安が米国の実体経済を冷え込ませ、金融の混乱にさらなる拍車がかかるとの見方も強い。
Meanwhile, financial authorities around the world are being forced to walk a tightrope as they try to deal with the crisis. 各国の金融当局は綱渡りの対応を迫られている。
Central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve Board, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, galvanized their joint efforts Monday to supply massive amounts of U.S. dollars to their respective money markets, demonstrating their resolve to support cash-strapped banks and financial institutions. 米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）、欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）、日銀などは、ドル資金を自国市場に大量に供給する協調策を拡充した。金融機関の資金繰りを支える強い決意を示すものだ。
However, the problem is that financial institutions are losing corporate vitality as losses from securitized mortgages they hold are increasing as house prices in the United States fall. The chorus of economists calling for public funds to be used to strengthen these institutions' capital bases is growing louder. だが、問題は、米国の住宅価格が下げ止まらず、値下がりした証券化商品を抱える金融機関の損失が拡大し、経営体力を消耗していることだ。金融機関の自己資本の増強にも公的資金を使うべきだ、との声が強まっている。
Central banks around the world must enhance their mutual cooperation and try to stabilize the global financial market by using every tool they have available. 各国当局は連携をさらに強め、あらゆる政策を総動員して、市場の安定化を図らねばならない。
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Japanese economy chilled ◆冷水を浴びた日本経済◆
The spreading financial crisis and volatility on global money markets have poured cold water on the stuttering Japanese economy, which has shown signs of falling into recession. 金融危機の拡大と世界的な市場の混乱は、景気の後退色が強まり「カゼ気味」だった日本経済に冷水を浴びせている。
The economic downswing was clearly shown in economic indexes for August announced Tuesday. このところの景気の退潮は、３０日に発表された８月の経済指標を見ても明らかだ。
The index of industrial output showed the largest drop in history and household spending decreased for six straight months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent, rising to the highest level in about two years. 鉱工業生産は過去最大の落ち込みとなり、家計の消費支出は６か月連続マイナスだった。失業率も４・２％と、約２年ぶりの高水準まで上昇した。
Market instability--such as plunging stock prices and the appreciation of the yen against the dollar--will deter investment and consumption. 株価の下落や円高・ドル安の進行などマーケットの波乱も、投資や消費の意欲を萎(な)えさせる。
The Bank of Japan has injected more than 20 trillion yen into the Tokyo money market since major U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy in mid-September. Nonetheless, foreign banks still have the jitters over their cash-flow situations. The government needs to take flexible and agile policy measures to prevent paralysis of the financial system. 日銀はリーマン・ブラザーズが９月中旬に破綻(はたん)してから、２０兆円を超える資金を市場に追加供給した。それでも外資系銀行などの資金繰り不安は根強い。金融システムのマヒを防ぐため、柔軟で機動的な政策運営が必要だ。
Before anything else, it must pass a supplementary budget for fiscal 2008 as soon as possible to implement the comprehensive economic package designed to alleviate the pains of the weakening economy. まずは、景気悪化の痛みを和らげる狙いで策定された総合経済対策を実施するため、補正予算の成立を急がねばならない。
The U.S. Congress rejected the bailout package out of partisan interests and aggravated the financial confusion. Japan must not repeat this mistake. 党利党略で法案を否決し、混乱に輪をかけた米議会の轍(てつ)を、日本は踏んではなるまい。
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Oct. 1, 2008) （2008年10月1日02時08分 読売新聞）
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